Covid-19 Executive Briefing

Understanding the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the implications for the construction sector

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 1 June 2020

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently -1.9%, with a recession expected.

Active job vacancies have plummeted, while unemployment has risen. More than one in six young people worldwide have stopped working.

-4.6%

The current Fitch forecast for world economic growth in 2020, which was revised down from April's forecast of -3.9%.

$8.5tn

The fall in global economic output over the next two years, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects report.

Impact of Covid-19 on asset prices

- SECTOR IMPACT: CONSTRUCTION -

Latest update: 3 June 2020

3.1%   ->   -2.2%

Q4 2019 forecast

current forecast

Forecast revision for 2020 global construction output growth

GlobalData predicts that global construction output in 2020 will fall by 2.2%, a sharp downward revision compared to the Q4 2019 forecast of 3.1% growth.

Across Western Europe, GlobalData now predicts that construction output will decrease by 5.2% while in North America output is expected to drop by 6.6%. In the event that the spread of the virus continues into the second half of 2020, further downward revisions to the growth outlook are likely.

Supply chain and demand disruption

The construction industry will be heavily affected by the economic downturn. Planned projects are at a high risk of being delayed or cancelled.


In the short term there is a high risk of projects in execution being halted because of lockdowns, a lack of materials and other supply chain disruption.


Projects at pre-construction stages will be severely delayed, given disruption processing building permits, tendering and awarding contracts.


This has had a sever impact on unemployment. While European governments are still permitting construction sites to remain open, contractors have laid off workers and used government support programmes.


However, governments and public authorities will advance spending on infrastructure projects as soon as normality returns to reinvigorate the industry.


This will be spread across all areas of transport infrastructure and energy and utilities.

Briefing

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