Covid-19 briefing

After months of decline, GDP estimates for many countries have turned positive, but unemployment remains high around the world.

According to UNCTAD, global trade declined by 9% in 2020 with a 6% contraction in goods trade and a 16.5% contraction in services trade.

Pre-Covid-19 2020 forecast

Adjusted 2020 forecast

2021 consensus forecast

Despite the huge stimulus packages, sharp cuts in interest rates and other unprecedented policy measures across all major markets, the construction industry is likely to be subdued beyond the immediate period of lockdowns and other containment measures.

Generally, the construction industry will be heavily affected by the expected widespread disruption to economic activity and a likely drop in investment, with planned projects being delayed or cancelled

4.5%

GlobalData expects that global construction output will expand by 4.5% in 2021 following the estimated contraction of 2.9% in 2020.

There are short-term challenges to getting back to a normal level of activity, not least those related to making sites Covid-19 secure and adhering to local regulations, notably social distancing rules and self-quarantining of workers. However, with the distribution of vaccines on the horizon, the risk of severe disruption has diminished.