Latest update: 20 January

World Bank forecasts global economic growth at 4% in 2021 as vaccine rollout becomes widespread, following an estimated 4.3% contraction in 2020.

Chinese economy expands by 6.5% in Q4 2020, taking the full year growth to 2.3% in 2020, according to National Bureau of Statistics.


 Consensus forecast for world GDP growth in 2020


 Unemployment rate in the US in December 2020, unchanged from the previous month

Global real GDP growth

% change on previous year




Pre-Covid-19 2020 forecast

Adjusted 2020 forecast

2021 consensus forecast

The cost of Covid-19


Estimated monthly cost of the Covid-19 pandemic globally


Cumulative loss for the global economy over the next two years


Latest update: 8 January 

output predictions

The construction industry recovered in most major markets in the second half of 2020 having suffered record declines in the first half amid the restrictions on activity imposed to contain the spread of Covid-19 infections.


GlobalData expects that global construction output will expand by 4.5% in 2021 following the estimated contraction of 2.9% in 2020.

There are short-term challenges to getting back to a normal level of activity, not least those related to making sites Covid-19 secure and adhering to local regulations, notably social distancing rules and self-quarantining of workers. However, with the distribution of vaccines on the horizon, the risk of severe disruption has diminished.

Supply chain and demand disruption

The construction industry will be heavily affected by the economic downturn in major markets, with planned projects at a high risk of being delayed or cancelled.

In the short term, there is a continued risk of projects in execution being halted because of new lockdowns, a lack of materials, and other supply chain disruption.

Construction sub-sector impact

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