Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 18 November

After weeks of gradual decline, GDP estimates for many countries have levelled off. Negative GDP growth is forecast in all countries except China.

The European Commission estimates that
the Euro Area economy will contract by 7.8% in 2020 and then recover to 4.2% in 2021.

-3.9%

Consensus forecast for global GDP growth in 2020.

7.5%

The EU’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2020.

Global real GDP growth

% change on previous year

2.6%

2.8%

-3.9%

Pre-Covid-19 2020 forecast

2019 average

Adjusted 2020 forecast

The cost of Covid-19

$375bn

Estimated monthly cost of th Covid-19 pandemic globally

$11tn

Cumulative loss for the global economy over the next two years

- SECTOR IMPACT: CONSTRUCTION

Latest update: 2 December

output predictions

The construction industry will be subdued beyond the immediate period of lockdowns and other containment measures despite huge government stimulus packages.

3.1%

GlobalData predicts that global construction output will contract by 3.1% in 2020 a sharp downward revision compared to the forecast increase of 3.1% pre-Covid-19.

Covid-19 containment measures are being imposed again in major markets, but in many markets the construction sector is being permitted to continue to work as normal. However, the wider negative impact on the economy from the Covid-19 crisis will weigh heavily on investment in the coming quarters, which could result in projects being cancelled or pushed back.

Supply chain and demand disruption

The construction industry will be heavily affected by the economic downturn. Planned projects are at a high risk of being delayed or cancelled.

In the short term there is a high risk of projects in execution being halted because of lockdowns, a lack of materials, and other supply chain disruption.

Projects at pre-construction stages are at risk of cancellation, given the weak economic environment, or delayed owing to disruptions in processing building permits, tendering and awarding contracts.

Construction sub-sector impact

Commercial construction is likely to be the hardest hit in 2020 with sectors such as retail, leisure and hospitality already suffering from the decline in trade, travel and consumer and business confidence.

The residential sector will struggle as unemployment rises, despite low interest rates and direct government support. There is a high risk that a considerable proportion of early-stage projects in the sector will be cancelled or delayed.

The industrial construction sector is most at risk from the severe drop in economic activity. Immediate priorities for manufacturers will be to stay afloat and rebuild core operations, rather than invest in new premises or capacity.

Infrastructure projects will be a priority for government investment as soon as normality returns, to reinvigorate the industry. With interest rates at record lows, borrowing costs will be at a minimum, but success will depend in part on the financial standing of governments post-Covid-19.

Governments across the world are preparing to fight the virus outbreak by strengthening their healthcare infrastructure, and building of new hospitals is rising sharply. This investment helping to support the expansion of institutional buildings.

05/19/2022 15:54:46